Politically, at a local level, summer, and especially August
tends to be the time when nothing much happens. There is a usually a break in meetings
because people will be on holiday. This year things may be different.
The Conservative party leadership election is well under
way. The Labour leadership election is just about to begin.
The entire political landscape has just changed as a result
of the EU Referendum result. The effect of this is only yet being guessed at,
and each region and town will feel it in different ways.
The Labour party has grown rapidly with a combination of
people who have joined for opposite reasons. Some in support of the Corbyn project
and some feel the need to rebalance the party. No one knows what the effect of
this will look like in each constituency.
The Conservatives have pressures of their own with an odd
coalition of people favouring the “change candidate”, and others with more
conservative instincts feeling that the country needs a period of stability.
The centre ground of politics has probably shifted, and it
is not clear that anyone currently occupies it.
The growing Liberal democrat party wonders if it can be the
new centre, or if it needs to build a broader alliance with other centralists
who may feel that their parties no longer work for them.
The discontent that brought us a vote for Brexit is still
there, fermenting away, with people on both the far right and far left
welcoming “disruption” as the means to finally let them create the particular
new Jerusalem of their dreams. These forces are eating away at the old
parties.
I will attend a CLP meeting this week. I expect it to be noisy. I do not know how
easy it will be for people to make their voices heard, or to listen to the range
of views that members will have. I
understand the anxieties of people who have been members for a long time, and
feel that all of this is taking us back to the bad old times, when Labour was
out of power for a generation. I have
met some of the new members who signed up for Corbyn, and understand their deep
enthusiasm, and untested idealism.
When I joined the Labour party it was a simple choice, I was
experiencing first hand some to the big problems that we have in the country,
particularly in social care, and it was clear to me that these were problems
that can only be solved by collective action and risk sharing. The Labour party
seemed to me the best hope of trying to find a way forward on this, though the
solutions also meant reaching across party boundaries and demonstrating to many
in the centre right that collective action was also in their best interests.
Political change sometimes happens rapidly, in a sudden
shift, more often it seems to be incremental, with many people contributing
over time to a shift in opinion. Incremental change may be easier to test, and
more enduring.
We have now been through six years of austerity, Services
have been cut back, and people have been hurt. Perhaps there is a particular duty
on political activists to understand this impact clearly and to be alert to the
changes Brexit and the financial pressures that accompany it will bring.
Many of those attending the CLP meeting, here and in other
areas will know all of this, though it may not necessarily be the main topic of
discussion.
Splits within parties are deeply felt, and can leave
scars that last for decades. There is a risk of sowing the seeds now for many
years of disharmony. I wonder if this can be avoided?
If I were to be heard, which I do not expect to happen, I
would be suggesting social events to help get to know the new members and understand
what they, as individuals, are hoping for.
I would also be suggesting that this is the time when we need to do a
lot of canvassing.
Canvassing can seem a bit strange. The door to door
conversations, checking people’s voting intentions and finding out about the
issues that concern them. I have always
been a bit of a heretic about canvassing. I do not accept that it is actually
going to give a particularly reliable indication of how people will vote, as I
have seen too many elections that have been swung by last minute media
campaigns, or by television debates. Too many people now decide on their vote,
or not to vote, at the last minute, so canvassing is no longer a magical tool
to predict outcomes.
So why, if I don’t believe in canvassing as an election
tool, do I say we should be doing more of it, the reason is that we really must
not form ideologically pure policy in closed rooms.
If we are to take the
normal view that winning elections is an important part of what political
parties try to do, then it helps if we can ensure our policies fit the needs of
the people we serve, and resonate with them.
We need to canvass for three
main reasons,
Firstly because the political
landscape has changed so radically that we cannot assume we know the voting
intention of anyone in the constituency,
Secondly because if we
have an influx of new members they need to be working as part of a team and
this time consuming task is a good starting point.
Lastly, and most
importantly, because the voters are the only ones who can tell us how the party
is perceived. If policies we hold dear are rejected by voters what does this
mean. Does it mean that we have to do a better job of explaining, or does it
mean that perhaps we may have got it wrong?
The future is
unknowable, but I think we will do better if we try to find what it is that we
have in common with people joining our party, and with others that share
some common ground with us, and if we also keep on testing that what we think
is in tune with the world as it really is.
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